Tropical Storm Matmo is currently east of the Philippines and moving westward. Matmo is expected to continue to intensify this weekend and into next week.

Matmo may become the third typhoon to threaten the western Pacific Basin in 2-3 weeks.

Strengthening Forecast

Tropical Storm Matmo formed well east of the Philippines, near the island of Yap on Thursday. Matmo is expected to continue to strengthen over the next few days and is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon (equivalent to hurricane-strength in the Atlantic or eastern Pacifc basins) this weekend.

Next Week: Taiwan and Southern China

Tropical Storm Matmo should reach typhoon status this weekend and then continue to strengthen. Matmo could be a Category 3 equivalent tropical cyclone next week as it approaches Taiwan.

Conditions will be fairly favorable for further development as vertical wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height) will be moderate and water temperatures are quite warm (over 80 degrees).

For now, the most likely path of the center of Matmo is to the east and northeast of the Philippines, about 400 miles from where the center of Typhoon Rammasun came ashore July 15, but it’s too early to take Luzon completely off the table.

Matmo is expected to begin moving to the northwest this weekend, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure just to the north will be the dominant steering influence. This northwest movement may put Taiwan and southern China in the path of Matmo.

Matmo is expected to bring rain and wind to Taiwan midweek and depending on the exact track it could be the first typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan this year.

Interests in Taiwan and southern China should monitor the progress of this system closely.

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