Meteorologists and state officials are bracing for potentially dangerous storms that could feature strong tornadoes.

The thunderstorms, expected to arrive midafternoon are unique and have the potential to be the most severe this summer, with a slight risk of powerful twisters forming in the Capital Region, according to the National Weather Service.

The storms will begin to take shape around 2 p.m., according to Steve DiRienzo, a meteorologist with the weather service, bringing wind gusts of up to 60 mph and hail as large as two inches.

Precisely where the storms will be the strongest is nearly impossible to predict, DiRienzo said, but anywhere from southern Saratoga County, to Albany, to portions of Columbia County could see the most violent weather.

The meteorologist said that there is a five percent chance that tornadoes could develop in any of those areas. The storms could linger until 10 p.m.

As of 11:30 a.m., the Capital Region was at moderate risk for severe weather, DiRienzo said.

DiRienzo said the storm system is very similar to the one that devastated western Massachusetts with tornadoes last year. That storm, which tore through areas around Springfield, Mass. on June 1, had F2 and F3 twisters, the categories assigned to intense, 100-mph-plus twisters.

Thursday's storm system will be the result of a warm front currently moving northeast from Pennsylvania that will be greeted by particularly unstable atmospheric conditions. The air will be especially erratic because of the damp, humid climate brought by rainfall that came Thursday morning.

The meteorologist explained that the sky will be ripe for twisters and nasty weather because there will plenty of warm, muggy air for the storm cells to feed off from the rain showers that came through Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

And if you see some breaks of sunshine in your area early this afternoon, don't think you won't see the worst of what's in store for the region. In fact, DiRienzo said that areas with the most sunlight around 2 p.m. may see the most severe weather, because the clear, open pockets of air will be where the storms develop.

The more sunshine we see, the worse the storm will be, DiRienzo said.

Exactly what portions of the region will clear up most by this afternoon is difficult to anticipate.

"It really depends on the heating and where the breaks in the clouds develop," DiRienzo said.

Not only is it difficult to predict where the worst of the weather will be, but it also hard to project how fast the storms will come.

Some storms could form in a matter of minutes, DiRienzo said, while others could take much longer to build up.

The only reported tornado to hit the region last year was near Amsterdam. That twister, which touched down on Sept. 5, was and F1, the second weakest on the tornado scale, but it still tore up trees and damaged homes.

The last time more powerful tornadoes hit the Capital Region was in 2003, when twisters hit Columbia and Greene counties, and in 1998 in Mechanicville, when F3 tornadoes ripped apart dozens of homes and businesses.

Storm systems that can form tornadoes are rare in the Albany area, the meteorologist said, materializing only once every three or four years.

The storms, however, will bring added relief to farmers, and the region in general, from the dry spell that has persisted from the end of June and throughout most of July.

In the first two weeks of July, Albany saw just 0.11 inches of rain, about 12 times less than the 1.39-inch average for the first half of the month.

Since then the area has been flush with rain, with storms on July 14 and 15 bringing more than two inches of rain and storms earlier this week dropping just over an inch. Albany is now at 3.39 inches of rain for the month, above the 3.32-inch normal for July 1 to date. The Capital Region is still about 1.5 inches under the normal for June 1 to date, and about 2.5 inches under for the year.

Thursday's rainfall total is expected to be about 0.75 inches, according to the weather service.

Local events and government officials started preparing for the storms when word of their potential severity began to spread last night.

Governor Andrew Cuomo sent out a warning urging residents to prepare for the possibility of severe storms, which may cause widespread power outages.

The governor ordered the state Emergency Operations Center to open at 1 p.m and told New Yorkers to pay close attention to local radio and television reports to stay up to date with the storms' progress.

Albany's Alive at Five concert has been moved to the Times Union Center.

The weather service officials and the governor said everyone in the storm's path should be prepared to restrict travel and be prepared to seek shelter if needed.

Earth Changes Media


Mitch Battros | 



Top of Page