All five sunspot regions on the solar disk produced C-class flares in the past 24 hours. The strongest flare during this interval was the C9.7 flare peaking at 20:25 UT yesterday from region 1432.

Sunspot region 1429 continues to decay, although still maintaining beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Another active region (most likely 1422) just appeared from behind the east limb. STEREO data showed several eruptions from this region when it was behind the limb (as seen from the Earth). We expect continuing flare activity on the C-level, with an M-flare very probable, mainly from regions 1429 and 1432.

Chances for an X-class flare are currently reduced. A possible partial halo CME (coronal mass ejection) first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view above the south limb at 08:29 UT yesterday is a backside CME according to the STEREO/SECCHI COR2 data.

The Earth is currently inside the solar wind flow with intermediate speed (around 520 km/s) and average interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (around 4 nT). The CME seems to be over, the geomagnetic conditions became quiet and are expected to remain so in the coming hours.

Tomorrow evening (or in the morning of March 12) we expect a strong (K = 7 or higher) geomagnetic storm due to the arrival of the magnetic cloud corresponding to the full halo CME on March 9. The proton flux at energies more than 10 MeV is currently above 10 pfu level as the proton event is still going on.

Earth Changes Media


Mitch Battros | 



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