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March 30 ,2001

Two CME's Heading Towards Earth

NASA Spaceweather News - Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are heading for Earth. The pair were hurled into space by explosions near the giant sunspot 9393 on Wednesday and Thursday. Forecasters estimate a 20 to 30% chance of severe geomagnetic storming when the CMEs strike our planet's magnetosphere Friday or perhaps early Saturday.

Sky watchers living above ~45 deg. geomagnetic latitude should remain alert for auroras after local nightfall until further notice.

RADIATION STORM: A powerful X-class solar flare erupted near sunspot group 9393 on March 29th at 1015 UT. The blast sent a coronal mass ejection toward Earth (see above) and triggered an ongoing S1-class proton storm around our planet.

Equation:
Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather
(mb)

Mitch Battros
Producer - Earth Changes TV
http://www.earthchangesTV.com

BOULDER, Colo. (UPI) -- A major solar flare erupted Thursday at 5:15 am EST from the largest sunspot area observed in a decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A strong radio blackout followed the burst, officials said, although geomagnetic storms are expected to be minor and isolated.

Barbara McGehan, a spokeswoman for the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder told United Press International that observers have been watching the sunspot area for several weeks, detecting increased activity and expecting a flare.

"But because of the size of the sunspot, they're expecting more. This is unlikely to be the only one," she said.

She added that Thursday's flare-up is not what she would consider an extreme event, explaining, the sun's activity cycle is around solar maximum.

However, "the sunspot cycle was basically past maximum, so we were surprised," Carsten Denker, a solar observation scientist with the national Big Bear Solar Observatory in Big Bear, Calif., told UPI.

The sunspot that spawned the flare was nonetheless of great interest to the Big Bear observatory and to other solar observatories around the world, even though it was less than one week old, he said.

"It had the intensity, size and polarity to create a big one, but because the cycle was on the wane, it wasn't expected. It's like a short circuit. The energy is suddenly released. But we expected more of these sooner," he sad.

Similar to earthquakes, the magnitude of solar flares in measured in multiple units. For solar flares, the smallest are M-class flares and the largest are X-class flares, and each one is measured on a sliding scale of intensity based on a set mathmatical formula.

Thursday's flare was categorized as a X-10 flare, Denker explained. The largest flare in the past two years was an X-20.

"It's still a pretty big sized flare," he commented, "and there's still a chance for more flares, but I doubt if any will approach this size."

 


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