By Donald Smith
NGNews.com
Government trucks racing through village streets blaring warnings
didn’t do it. Neither did clanging church bells, or soldiers
begging residents to leave. Not even the sight of ash, smoke,
and large, red-hot rocks shooting 650 feet (200 meters) into the
sky could convince thousands of Mexicans this week that the time
finally had come to flee Popocatépetl, the “friendly
volcano.”
As of Wednesday, authorities had managed to evacuate some 26,000
residents in three states surrounding the volcano, and still were
trying to convince an almost equal number to relocate to 180 refugee
centers. While calling for calm, Mexican President Vicente Fox
urged those in harm’s way to leave immediately.
Although the volcano was relatively quiet as of dawn Thursday,
scientists and government officials continued to warn of the possibility
of a cataclysmic eruption. Another fear is that a 3,000-foot-
(900-meter-) long glacier on the western face of the volcano could
be loosened by molten rock, causing massive mudslides. Officials
have expanded the danger zone from 7.5 miles (12 kilometers) to
12.5
miles (20 kilometers), and are warning residents to stay away
for another one to two weeks.Still, thousands either refuse to
go or insist on returning before the danger has passed.
“It’s their homes and their livelihoods that they’re
being asked to leave behind,” says U.S. Geological Survey
volcanologist Rick Hoblitt. “I’ve witnessed this in
a lot of volcano crises. A lot of people refuse to believe there’s
a problem.”
SIMILAR TO U.S. VOLCANOES
U.S. scientists like Hoblitt are especially interested in Popocatépetl
because of its geological similarities to volcanoes in the Cascade
Range in Washington, Oregon and California. Future eruptions of
these volcanoes will threaten nearby communities in those states.
In recent years, volcanologists working for the U.S.
Geological Survey and others from Arizona State University have
been collaborating with Mexican scientists studying Popocatépetl
in hopes of gaining insights applicable to future eruptions in
the United States.
Relatively quiet since some notable rumbling in 1920-1922, Popocatépetl
began showing signs of renewed activity in 1994. Warnings by Mexican
authorities were met with skepticism when Popocatépetl
began seriously misbehaving again two and a half years ago. It
belched large volumes of ash, gas and chunks of molten rock—all
clear warning signals of a possible eruption.
Despite the volcano’s most recent display, the most spectacular
in half a millennium, residents of close-in villages give a variety
of reasons for not wanting to leave. Many say they are reluctant
to leave their farm animals with no food.
“Some people will leave on their own,” says Hoblitt,
who in the past has seen similar reactions in many countries.
“Others will go when the authorities recommend it, and there
will always be people who refuse to go under any circumstances.
There’s usually a faction that distrusts the government and
its motives. If they’re forced out, they will find a way
back in.”
Hoblitt recalls similar behavior in the days leading up to the
catastrophic eruption of Mount Saint Helens in the state of Washington
in 1980.
“A lot of people felt there wasn’t a problem, and they
wanted access to their property near the volcano. In fact people
were willing to engage in civil disobedience to get through police
lines and get to their property. The sheriff couldn’t control
them.”
LORD OF RAIN AND SOIL
Snow-capped “Popo,” as many people call Mexico’s
second tallest volcano, is just 42 miles (60 kilometers) southeast
of Mexico City and its population of some 18 million. Standing
7,884 feet (5,452 meters) tall, it is one of the most active volcanoes
in the country, with 15 eruptions recorded since the arrival of
the Spanish in A.D. 1519. Aztec Indians, who gave it the name
“smoking mountain” in their Nahuatl language, reported
eruptions in 1347 and 1354.
In a 1520 letter to King Carlos V of Spain, explorer Hernando
Cortés spoke in awe of the “great column of smoke
[that] comes forth and rises into the clouds as straight as a
staff, with such force that although a very violent wind continuously
blows over the mountain range, yet it cannot change the direction
of the column.” Cortés sent a small expedition to
“find out the secret of the smoke, where and how it arose.”
Popo’s more recent activity has inspired fear. Authorities
evacuated thousands from 19 villages after a series of small earthquakes
that began after midnight on December 21, 1994 signaled significant
eruptions. Many were reluctant to leave despite the huge gray
ash cloud that drifted from the top of the volcano, dusting the
Puebla Valley with an estimated 8,000 tons of debris. The bodies
of five mountaineers were found with third degree burns near the
crater.
However, most eruptions in the recent past have been relatively
mild. Some 50 short displays of ash and steam, sometimes accompanied
by lava, have been noted since August 1997. Occasionally the blasts
have been powerful enough to shower the outskirts of Mexico City
with ash.
Local residents have long marveled at an even more frequent phenomenon:
the formation of rain clouds over the peak, which bring life-giving
showers to the fields. Mexicans always have taken a kindly view
toward Popo, some even revering it as a god of rain and soil because
of the enriching effect that the ash has on their fields.
But the 1994 outbursts served as a reminder that, like a restless
giant, Popo also has the potential of causing great harm. Since
then government scientists have installed an elaborate monitoring
system that includes 23 video cameras to provide around-the-clock
images. Stations set up to monitor cracks on the volcano feed
continuous streams of data to Mexico City’s National Disaster
Prevention Center, where researchers try to interpret activity
beneath the surface. The government has also provided a total
of 1,232 shelters to handle more than 300,000 people in the event
of a major eruption.
Still, many refuse to leave when the warnings go out.
“Sometimes the most reluctant to go are old people,”
says Hoblitt. “When you’re 90 years old, you may rather
die in your bed than be displaced.”
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